Student examines growing degree days

High Latitude Agriculture student Ellen Hatch (pictured at right) will spend the summer of 2009 studying and mapping growing degree days in the Fairbanks North Star Borough.

“It’s a question as old as agriculture itself,” Hatch said. “What should be planted when?”

Current USDA Alaska zone delineations are based on extremes, and Hatch decided to obtain more accurate information. Working with her advisor, Dr. Nancy Fresco, Hatch relied on projections provided by the Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. She wants to discover how accurate the predictions are. “I’m going to take another swing at mapping things,” she said, pointing out obvious problems such as Prudhoe Bay and Fairbanks showing the same zones on the USDA map.

In current maps, micro-zones are based on minimum extreme temperatures, which only pertains to overwintering plants and perennials. Hatch plans to tackle growing degree days based on heat requirements for plants to develop physiologically, taking into account Alaska’s long daylight hours. She will use historical climate data from the Climatic Research Unit, projections of future Alaska climates based on the five best global circulation models, multiple scenarios based on optimistic, midrange, and pessimistic emission predictions, and scaled down historical and projected data with local topography information. She will also incorporate data from ten weather stations in the borough. Hatch hopes her new maps will benefit farmers by providing information on potential crop production zones, the potential future of crops and growth zones based on predicted climate change, and make possible diversification of the produce market in the borough.

The research will concentrate on annual plants that are directly seeded (not transplanted). She will begin with standard Fairbanks crops such as spinach, beans, beets, kale, and expand to experimental crops, including cilantro, apples, and new cultivars.

“I’m more interested in finding out what the farmers can grow, not what they are not able to grow,” Hatch explained.

Hatch, who was selected as “outstanding student of the year” by the High Latitude Agriculture faculty, became interested in this topic after hearing Dr. John Walsh lecture on climate change and Nancy Fresco discuss SNAP. “Climate change in the future will have some serious implications for agriculture around the world, and these effects can potentially be examined right here at home in the North Star Borough,” Hatch said.

She took into consideration the larger agricultural community – scientists, growers, potential growers, people thinking about buying land in Alaska – when selecting her thesis subject. “I hope my project will prove useful,” she said. “More exploration in the usefulness of the growing degree day increment to Alaska agriculture is certainly needed and my project and the ground truthing I plan to do this summer will hopefully provide another point of insight.” The accuracy of the maps will be the key to the work’s value to farmers, she said.

Knowing what areas of the borough are cooler or warmer will likely be of interest to prospective land buyers and farmers should find the trends and increments of increase in growing degree days of interest, she said. Hatch plans to visit local farmers with a set of interview questions and follow up by phone or e-mail throughout the summer. She also intends to spend lots of time at the Tanana Valley Farmers’ Market. Any growers interested in the project should contact Hatch.

Hatch has spent her college years at UAF except for exchange studies she did in Hawaii, Norway, and Scotland. She plans to pursue master’s and doctorate degrees and ultimately attend medical school. She is greatly interested in helping Alaska become more independent in food production. Her other passions are geothermal energy and climate change. In free time, Hatch enjoys mountaineering, ice climbing, backpacking, soccer, ultimate Frisbee, jazz music, and reading.

“I am so grateful to my professors in High Latitude Ag who have provided intellectually stimulating classes and inspired me with their enthusiasm,” she said.

Nancy Fresco, Hatch’s advisor, said, “It's great to be working with a motivated student who is taking advantage of the climate projections that SNAP offers. This project is both timely and important; it has the potential to assist farmers and gardeners across the borough as they fine-tune their agricultural capabilities and plan for change.”